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The Recent Political Drift in Jammu And Kashmir

Today was a shocking day for all political enthusiasts as BJP backed out from the coalition government with PDP in J&K. Before discussing the political turmoil of today, I would like to enlighten all my readers with the current assembly seat distribution of J&K.

PDP-28 seats 
BJP -25 seats
NC(National Congress) -15 seats
INC(Indian National Congress) - 12 seats

The seats required for majority = 44 seats and the current coalition was effectively making 53 seats (BJP + PDP). But now the scenario has changed, but let's see the possible reasons because of which BJP backed out of the coalition.

Reason 1-Terror is on rise and BJP doesn't want to be a part of a failed coalition. But these issues are not valid enough because they were exiting since last year so why backing out now ...... I guess something is fishy. 

 Reason 2- As soon as BJP backed out, CM Mufti resigned from her post giving clear signals that an alternative government with NC and INC is not a possibility (provided the historic rivalry between NC and INC).This leads to speculations that Mufti was very rigid in her decisions and these decisions didn't strike a good deal with the BJP leadership in J&K.

 Reason 3- Modi government wants more control over the military in J&K and if BJP backs out of Kashmir then J&K will be under governors rule which implies that central government will be handling the Kashmir issue all by themselves. This indicates that another political /surgical Strike is bound to happen ! and very soon.

I personally feel that the timing of the potential surgical strike will be before the start of Amarnath yatra!

The third reason seems to be a more sought out reason but it must be executed properly for maximum output. This reason benefits the country as well as BJP is campaigning for next Lok Sabha election (A similar strategy used by them before UP assembly elections)

PS - I am not a hardcore BJP supporter.

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